What Would a NASCAR Split Look Like for Stock Car Racing? (2024)

No one wins a civil war.

Whoever comes out as a victor made it because of survival, not triumph.

After the news this week of NASCAR’s on-going charter negotiations with the Race Team Alliance steaming full-speed to nowhere, is the possibility of a war between the two sides forthcoming?

It would not be a conflict fought with guns and soldiers, but words and names, taking the battle in steel racing war machines to venues across the country to duke it out.

A civil war would ignite over the asphalt prairie lands of the stock car world, with the strategic goal to achieve some semblance of control in the sport’s future.

Is a war likely with the ignition being a new stock car series started by the car owners? According to recent reports, owners don’t appear ready, at least publicly, to accept that endeavor. That’s good for the series, and evidence that at least some level of sanity exists in the duel of competing interests between the France family and car owners.

Any action that leads towards carnage in the very stable stock car environment would be shocking. If decision makers were to travel so far down a road of strife in which neither side could come to terms on a mutually beneficial future, and a split ensues, it would be similar to the last peaceful European summer before World War I broke out. That was a time when so many national leaders were oblivious to the destructive force they were allowing to creep into existence.

That’s what lies ahead for stock car racing if the most unbelievable were to melt into reality.

While both sides maintaining the status quo seems logical on the outside with smart, rational leaders doing their part, money is a massive mind changer. More so in this era of racing when budgets are in the tens of millions for one car and lives depend on the continual flow of cash.

But if a war did erupt, say a Split between NASCAR and the owners, how would that progress and what would it look like?

There’s a lot to unpack in that question. Residually, the impact would be unknown to the racing fan as it unfolds in the three feet between their face and phone. To gauge results, it’s important to look at the near-term goals and consequences, even before any rival series starts, followed by assessing the outlook years down the road.

To really help put any action by NASCAR and the RTA into context, the best comparison would be to the American open-wheel split that happened twice, first in 1978-1979 and again in 1996.

In both splits, a sanctioning body dealt with an internal rogue element that was either looking for more control over the future and direction, or money – sound familiar? In 1979, the owners competing in the United States Auto Club national championship series split over, among other things, revenue and promotion concerns over races outside the Indy 500. A few decades later, the more well known 1996 conflict between Championship Auto Racing Teams which is what was formed after leaving USAC, faced a dissatisfied Tony George, president of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. George felt left out of decision-making in the series that supplied the teams for his Indy 500 and created the Indy Racing League. That Split that ensued lasted until 2008.

IndyCar rebounded only years later and not at the peak level of popularity attained in the lead up to 1996.

With those details and historical references, let’s set these conditions in place that will exist in this theoretical discussion about a stock car split:

1. Frustrated with diminishing counter proposals that don’t provide acceptable increases in revenue sharing from media rights deals and denial of permanent charter systems, the RTA announces the intent to start a new, separate national top-tier stock car racing series in 18 months (starting in February 2026). In a historical sense, this is stock car’s version of the “shot heard around the world.”
2. NASCAR counters this announcement by restricting any new series access to all tracks owned by the sanctioning body, taking 13 current tracks on the schedule out of the running for the RTA.
3. All Charter teams remove their operations from NASCAR sanctioned races starting in 2026. So no Cup team will have any further involvement in NASCAR’s development series.
4. Charters continue on in some form in a new series.

Alright NASCAR and RTA, you want war, now you have it. Hypothetically speaking of course.

The die is cast. What next?

RTA Will Need Some Help First

Before any of the above conditions are met for this RTA-owned series to Frankenstein its way to existence, several factors have to be in place. First, a new series will require a decision-making body, probably a board of owners, to hire or assign someone as the face of the organization that will run the day-to-day operations. This person is either a president or commissioner, and answers directly to the owner’s board, whichever direction that goes. An owner, with deep pockets, like Rick Hendrick or Michael Jordan, could be chosen, but for a fledgling stock car group, best to bring someone that isn’t coming from one of the racing shops that wore a Hendrick Motorsports or 23XI Racing hat or polo at one time or another.

Second, long before an announcement is made, a media deal, separate from NASCAR’s partners, and a line of credit of some sort is in hand. This is to ensure the first year of the series at least has cash flow both from an interested media partner and the resources to operate a new national racing organization. If neither of these are in place, then the RTA series is not going to be able to hit the green flag in a new season.

A media deal will also show how serious the series is in the eyes of networks. If no money comes in from CBS, ABC, or Versus (IndyCar flashback), then there is no avenue to survive. Keep in mind the original conditions: this Split is over increases to media rights payments. Silly to start a series without a whole lot of Benjamin Franklins backing up in Brinks trucks from a media company to the RTA’s front door.RTA owners will want the same amount of money coming in that they are trying to negotiate from NASCAR, otherwise these are some terrible business people.

The time it takes for the media deal to be negotiated and a schedule in place will be a hurdle. Tony George’s Indy Racing League was announced in July 1994, the first race date shared to the public January 1995, and the inaugural event finally ran January 1996. In the span of 18 months, the new open-wheel series went from press release to green flag.

However, the schedule (discarding the weird 1996-97 schedule, don’t ask, trust me), included just six races run that first calendar year. Six.So that might not even be enough time to make a full schedule.

The RTA will have to do better than that, but let’s give them the same timeline. With that 18-month window, from their inaugural season start date (if announced this summer, approximately around January to February 2026 inaugural race) and working backwards, then any media deal and cash would be lined up in the summer before the last year the RTA competes in Cup. As in this summer.

Oh yes, that means the RTA would run under the NASCAR Cup banner for one full year before splitting. That sounds saucy to say the least.

NASCAR holds a lot of leverage though. While the RTA has the stars, the France family has expertise, manpower, a sanctioning body for rules and regulations, and most of all, the current media deals that pay a ghastly amount of money. Then there is the track situation. NASCAR owns 13 racetracks that are on the schedule, a couple more that are not in use, like Pikes Peak International Raceway outside Colorado Springs. No way any of them defunct asphalt paperweights or lightly used venues become available for RTA to race.

To fill their entry list, NASCAR has a plethora of teams in the junior ranks that will jump at the opportunity to race on the big tracks, but the money has to be there and the car regulations suit their early budgets. More than likely, the multi-million dollar investments in the Next Gen will be a thing of the past in whatever NASCAR tries to put on track to replace the teams that leave for the RTA series.

The administration element that NASCAR possesses is also something not to overlook. With years of actually running a nationwide racing series that has multiple competition levels and makes millions, the human resources required in that endeavor is incomprehensible. Any new start-up operation by the RTA will be vastly overwhelmed and unprepared for the responsibilities ahead. This is one problem the IRL faced, as much of the administration of the series was handled in-house by George’s IMS staff. The RTA has no staff to take on that level of complexity in operations.

However, if the RTA can establish its own or contract with some sort of racing sanctioning body — USAC, the Sports Car Club of America or even FIA — then they might be able to solve their near-term manpower shortages and lack of expertise.

Getting a Schedule Together Will Be Challenging

Now, let’s say the RTA has made an announcement, they are invested in going a different direction and have money in hand to pay owners to compete and win, while also promote their product. What next?

There will be an assortment of necessary tasks, but lining up a schedule and committing to the gap year racing calendar – the year after the announcement and before the new series’ season starts – is next in this journey.

How many racetracks are going to be available to the RTA? Well, NASCAR will say no to all of theirs, which includes their regional racing series tracks as well. The other big, multi-track owner in the country now becomes a huge pawn in this civil war, and that’s Speedway Motorsports.

Ten of their tracks are on the current schedule, with the 11th being Kentucky that’s hiding out among some bluegrass banjo music being neglected. The key consideration in what SM would do is based on whether they could contractually allow another stock car series compete at their tracks while also hosting NASCAR, or feel confident to challenge NASCAR by bringing in RTA. NASCAR could pull their dates, if they are legally able to, or withhold media right payments. But the counter is, what deal could be made with the RTA? Let’s say the RTA series, now taking in a decent media deal, gives 30% of the deal to tracks; is that enough of an enticement to host? A 30-race schedule with each SM track likely to get two dates per a venue to fill in a very open RTA schedule might sway the Smith family.

In this exercise, it’s hard to tell. But if money is the deciding factor in the RTA to split from NASCAR, then let’s apply the same logic to SM. They stay with the hand that feeds them and takes the known money from NASCAR. One benefit out of this? RTA doesn’t have to race at Texas Motor Speedway anymore. Guess there are some victories in war after all.

With no NASCAR or SM owned tracks, the pickings are slim for the RTA. There are few independent venues left after the buying-splurge in the late 90s through the last two decades by the two track-owning conglomerates. Still, there’s some hope, and it might be in the form of a rental truck magnate, Roger Penske. His 2019 purchase of IMS will provide the RTA a marque event and at least one of the crown jewels that is on the current NASCAR schedule with the Brickyard 400. Penske is a businessman and has vast experience from supporting a car owner-led series dating back to his CART days. His perspective on a successful road map ahead will be as equal to what he brings to the table with the Brickyard 400 being raised to an altar as the tentpole event for the RTA series.

Looking back at the 1996 Split in open-wheel, this was the biggest failure in one side losing prominence. While CART had the names, like the RTA, they lacked a race that was in the public conscious since the IRL possessed the biggest race, the Indy 500. Stock cars have multiple crown jewels. Daytona is obviously the biggest, but at same time, it’s a NASCAR track.Racing at Indianapolis, while its legacy is tied to open-wheel, will provide the drivers, teams and owners prestige and acclaim, and give them an event to raise their profiles in their new endeavor. Winning at Indy means something, regardless what style of car.

For filling out the rest of the RTA schedule, they will have some cards up their sleeve in convincing NASCAR-signed tracks to switch over. With the sparse supply of independently owned 1-mile or larger tracks, the RTA can offer multiple races to any of them compared to NASCAR because they have more weekends to fill on their calendar.

For example, Pocono Raceway could return to two events in a year, and if RTA can swing it via a hefty media rights deal, give the Tricky Triangle an increase in revenue than NASCAR. Same applies to World Wide Technology Raceway and IMS which could host on the oval and road course. Other tracks not on the schedule could be tapped to return to top-tier stock car racing, like Rockingham Speedway, the Milwaukee Mile, and Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park.

The RTA is going to have to accept that the big cookie cutter 1.5 milers are not on their docket in the near term, as all are NASCAR or SM owned. So short tracks throughout the country might be hosting Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch at local venues, reconnecting the sport with its roots in the 1950s and 1960s. To fill out the remaining schedule, the RTA will have little choice but to become like the former Superstar Racing Experience, and take the show to the country’s best short tracks.

But before that first RTA season starts, they have to complete the final year with NASCAR, and that won’t go smoothly.

The First Daytona After a Split Announcement

After the announcement of a new stock series, there will be a war of words back and forth. Things will be said between both parties and the future will seem uncertain. At some point a collision will occur that will signal the definitive sinkhole that will ensnare the sport. That collision point will be at Daytona.

Regardless of what happens with a RTA series, the former Cup teams will put the resources into competing at the Daytona 500 in the near-term because it’s their race. While the intent of the Brickyard will be to have a race that is a marque event for the RTA series, Daytona will still be tugging at every owners hearts. As it should, it’s the biggest stock car race in the world. But to the France family, its the biggest NASCAR race in the world.

NASCAR will construct rules or regulations that best fits whatever car package they bring to the Great American Race to supplant the new field that has to be created to make up for the RTA teams leaving. That could be using Xfinity cars, or older Generation 6 bodies, or really sticking it to the teams coming up to fill the field, forcing them to run the Next Gen (that’s pricey). Regardless of what NASCAR chooses to do to fill in their Cup field, the RTA will still add their names to that entry list, whether in the meantime before their series starts or in the future as one-offs; it’s Daytona, they will want to be there.

NASCAR won’t blink an eye before they lock out those teams. Each one will be disqualified from entry, and no hauler will be allowed through the tunnels.

RTA, you shall not pass.

Unbeknownst to the France family, Penske will show up at the RTA crisis meeting holding a dusty, leather bound book (probably) titled How to sue to get your team in a prestigious race. And win. By Roger Penske. Forward by Pat Patrick.

This is the playbook to the exact same crisis that befell the CART teams trying to enter the 1979 Indy 500 after the series was announced. USAC rejected six entries for the Greatest Spectacle in Racing from the rival CART and a lawsuit was filed. Eventually the teams were allowed to compete (good for Penske as he won his second Indy 500 that year).

When this happens, and the legal drama commences, there won’t be any turning back. Boundaries drawn with sticks in the sand will become trenches dug with shovels and backhoes. Emotions and egos will be the new voice of reason and words will be catapulted into every racing site, medium and video that is on the internet.

RTA will stand their ground, saying that ‘the Daytona 500 is the greatest stock race and they should be allowed to compete.’ NASCAR will say ‘stock car is literally in our company’s name, we choose who can enter.’ Sides will blame the other. What happens in the courts, which this will spill over into, doesn’t really matter at this point. The war is officially declared. Each organization will fight to ensure they don’t lose, so they and not the other can decide the future of the sport.

But the real loser in all this, the fans, who thought of how cool it would be to have twice as much stock racing with two series, will have to choose a side.

Eventually, those fans will choose neither.

The Outlook

Choosing which side to be on in any conflict sucks. That’s what happened in open-wheel, and it possibly is the long-term outlook for stock cars. Fans will be forced to choose one series over the other because neither organization will want the competition to succeed, so accommodations for the fanbase will be marginalized. Races will overlap and be in markets with close proximity with each other, and storylines will be confused as fans ask, ‘which series did what again?’

Sure, the short-term outlook will be good, with the revenue from television and the internet, but that won’t last forever. Fans, tired of the same angst they see on the news and on social media will depart, distracted by the next great thing. Perhaps their local short track series, or NHRA and maybe return back to open-wheel. But, the real prediction is that eyes flock to Formula 1.

Mark these words – a stock car civil war will mean that Formula 1, that parade-like atmosphere in some races but filled with manufacturer and sponsorship money, will be a cream that rises to the top in the resulting racing vacuum.

That’s what a Split in NASCAR will look like. It’s awful, ugly, and sad. Hopefully the rational thoughts coming out of the RTA, which isn’t thinking of doing a start-up series, holds. All they have to do is ask Penske, and he will share the war stories of the 1990s.

That Split, more than any other, showed that in a civil war, no one wins.